As long as your dog wins the game 44% of the time or more, you’ve made a smart bet.īeginners, squares and too many media pundits want to phrase their challenge as “who’s going to win this particular game?” Nobody could know the answer, any more than one could know what card is coming on the river in Texas Hold ’Em, what card is about to hit the table early in a blackjack shoe, or whether black or red is about to hit in roulette. 435, which means your break-even percentage is only 43.5%.
MONEYLINE TO PERCENTAGE PLUS
You divide your price by the sum of that price plus 100, in this case 130 divided by 230. Here, you’ll be calculating one minus your fraction. You think a 130 underdog has a good chance to spring an upset.
MONEYLINE TO PERCENTAGE HOW TO
But, since most of you need to learn how to bet more underdogs, it’s worth the effort. Justin Verlander and the Astros lost a 2019 regular-season game to the beleaguered Baltimore Orioles at -425! Your -260 favorite will lose money if it wins the game only 70% of the time.įiguring the math on underdogs is a bit trickier.
You’d better be thinking that your choice is going to win about 60% of the time for that to be a smart bet.Īt higher prices, the win percentage you need is prohibitive. Your $125 investment is 55.6% of the money at stake. These formulas use percentage in a decimal form, meaning that 50 is written as. If the opponent’s moneyline is +450 and a bettor risks 100 it is to win 450 and therefore the return is 550 (100 stake + 450 win) so the math is 100/5500.1818 (18.18). Convert Moneyline To Percentage Convert Moneyline To Percentage Calculation The 50 wager would return 80.30 to the bettor (30.30 profit plus the original 50 bet). You’re risking $125 to win $100 (or anything in that ratio) that the favorite will win. For a moneyline of -600, if a bettor risks 600 they win 100 and therefore the return is 700 (600 stake + 100 win). For a -125 favorite, that means 125 divided by 225. With a favorite, simply divide the price you see by the sum of that price plus 100. Underdogs have gotten absolutely clubbed on the road, so limit your betting to squads with home-court advantage. Big difference.įirst, let’s recap how to determine the break-even point. Home underdogs have covered the spread 54 percent of the time, netting a 1,100.17 profit. The break-even point for a -260 favorite is 72.2%. The break-even point for a -125 favorite is 55.6%. Too many will just explain the obvious about how the favorite is superior to the underdog, then finish off with “and that should be enough,” whether it’s a -125 favorite, a -160 favorite, a -200 favorite or a -260 favorite. You’re seeing a lot of pundits completely ignore break-even percentages when making playoff picks.
Using An Implied Probability Calculator To Place A. Unfortunately, the explosion of sports betting media coverage hasn’t helped. Calculating Las Vegas (-115) moneyline odds yields a 53.49 implied winning probability for the Raiders. And even those who have absorbed a general sense of pricing still don’t have a firm grasp of percentages. How do you turn moneylines into break-even percentages? Beginning bettors typically have trouble adjusting from football and basketball point spreads to baseball moneylines.
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